Nobel Peace Prize laureate and human rights advocate Tawakkol Karman has warned that growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates represent more than a temporary dispute of interests. In her assessment, the conflict reflects a fundamental clash of competing strategies with significant implications for regional stability.

According to Karman, the Emirati approach relies on militarizing fragile states and fragmenting governance through proxy militias. This strategy, she argues, has effectively created a “ring of fire” around Saudi Arabia, raising the risk of long-term instability that could eventually threaten the kingdom itself.

In response, Saudi Arabia has reportedly adopted a counter-strategy following what Karman describes as a “belated awakening and great repentance.” Riyadh’s approach, she notes, emphasizes the consolidation of central authority and the strengthening of state institutions, rejecting the use of militias as instruments of influence.

From Sudan and Somalia to Yemen, Saudi Arabia has implemented measures to counter Emirati-backed networks, strengthen governance, and consolidate legitimate authorities. Karman notes that these efforts have significantly altered regional dynamics, leaving the UAE facing setbacks in areas where it previously exerted influence.

In Yemen, Karman predicts that Saudi Arabia will move to unify military, security, and civil forces across the liberated provinces under the supervision of the internationally recognized government, while providing the economic support necessary to stabilize public services and state institutions. Following this consolidation, Riyadh is expected to extend the state’s reach toward Sana’a, either through negotiation or military means, in order to restore unified governance across the country.

Under this scenario, Karman argues, the Houthi group will face decisive pressure to either disarm and integrate into a national framework or confront direct military escalation. She emphasizes that any long-term settlement would require a state that monopolizes the use of force and guarantees political rights for all citizens.

Karman further warns that if Saudi Arabia fails to act decisively, the Emirati strategy could recover from its current setbacks and return in a more aggressive form, posing renewed threats to the kingdom and the wider region.

She concludes by emphasizing the shared existential stakes for both countries and the necessity of a Yemen where all issues are resolved through dialogue, consensus, and free political participation, without external imposition.

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